demand

3 pieces

46 megawatts. That is what Europe connected in the first half of 2026.

Against 177 MWel in the same period of 2025, and with the average commissioned project falling from 18 MWel to 5 MWel. This is not a slowdown in growth. It is a change of scale downwards, and the diagnosis of why has moved from cost to something harder to fix.

19 Oct 202610 min read6 sources

regulationrfnbopolicydemand

The regulatory risk just changed sign, and most models are priced for the old one

Until the summer the risk was that Europe would not loosen the RFNBO rules. Since mid-September it is the opposite: that loosening them takes the demand mandate with it. A leaked impact assessment and a letter signed by 170 companies describe the same reversal from both ends.

4 Oct 20269 min read6 sources

demandofftakebankability

What a hydrogen buyer can pay is below USD 2/kg. For steel it is negative.

The offtake conversation usually stops at 'buyers are slow to commit'. The IEA has now computed what they could commit to, and published the boundary it used. The answer changes which projects are worth developing.

30 Aug 20269 min read7 sources